Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
