Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
